{
  "_meta": {
    "purpose": "Published constants for the MotorJury ownership-price layer: what a car cost new, what it is worth today, what it will be worth in five years, and what it costs to insure. Every figure here is a LABELED ESTIMATE from public industry series, never a quote and never a per-car measurement.",
    "updated": "2026-08-25",
    "sources": [
      "Average new-vehicle transaction price, United States — Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book monthly ATP series, annual means, nominal dollars, rounded to the nearest $100.",
      "Retained-value curve — the consensus of published depreciation studies (iSeeCars 5-year depreciation study; Edmunds and NADA residual guidance). Expressed as the share of original transaction price still held at a given age.",
      "Insurance bands — national average annual full-coverage premium by vehicle class, United States (NAIC auto insurance database report; Bankrate/Insurance Information Institute annual averages), re-priced per country with the ins_idx column already carried in data/geo_prices.json.",
      "Segment placement — computed from the model's own record: brand tier, name keywords, EPA combined economy and powertrain. The rule is published on /methodology/.",
      "Retained-value curve — iSeeCars annual depreciation study (fleet average 5-year retention ~61%), cross-checked against Edmunds and NADA residual guidance. Segment retention multipliers reflect the same studies' spread: trucks and sports cars hold value, large luxury sedans and used EVs do not.",
      "Used-market level — Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Cox Automotive), monthly."
    ],
    "not_a_source_of": "Per-VIN valuation, dealer asking price, trade-in offer, or an insurance quote. Bands are class-level central estimates; a specific car's condition, mileage, options and location move it materially.",
    "annual_miles_assumption": 12000,
    "band_width": "The published low-high band is +/-18% around the central estimate, which is roughly the interquartile spread of real listing prices for one model-year in one market.",
    "basis": "Prices are built from the price of the segment's equivalent NEW car today (share of the current US average transaction price), then walked back to the model year with the ATP series for the historical figure, and forward with the retained-value curve for what the car is worth now. Working in today's money is what keeps a 2015 car from being priced in 2015 dollars against a 2026 used market.",
    "segment_multiplier_note": "Share of the current US average new-vehicle transaction price. midsize 0.62 x $50,400 = about $31,000, which is where a new mid-size sedan actually lists.",
    "used_market_index_note": "The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has sat roughly 8% above its pre-2021 trend line since the supply shock, so the retained-value curve — calibrated on pre-shock studies — is lifted by that factor for present-day values. Removed the moment the index returns to trend.",
    "keyword_matching": "Longest keyword wins, matched on word boundaries: 'outlander sport' is a compact SUV even though 'outlander' is a mid-size one, and 'rio' can never fire inside 'Riviera'."
  },
  "atp_by_year": {
    "1995": 19800,
    "2000": 21850,
    "2005": 27940,
    "2008": 28400,
    "2010": 29200,
    "2012": 30900,
    "2014": 32500,
    "2015": 33340,
    "2016": 34000,
    "2017": 35100,
    "2018": 35900,
    "2019": 37300,
    "2020": 38900,
    "2021": 42400,
    "2022": 46300,
    "2023": 48300,
    "2024": 47500,
    "2025": 49700,
    "2026": 50400
  },
  "segment_multiplier": {
    "economy": 0.36,
    "compact": 0.52,
    "midsize": 0.62,
    "fullsize": 0.8,
    "compact_suv": 0.64,
    "midsize_suv": 0.84,
    "fullsize_suv": 1.24,
    "pickup": 1.0,
    "minivan": 0.8,
    "sports": 1.1,
    "sports_luxury": 2.2,
    "luxury_compact": 1.0,
    "luxury_midsize": 1.4,
    "luxury_large": 2.2,
    "exotic": 6.0
  },
  "brand_tier": {
    "exotic": [
      "ferrari",
      "lamborghini",
      "mclaren",
      "bugatti",
      "koenigsegg",
      "pagani",
      "rolls-royce",
      "bentley",
      "aston martin",
      "lotus",
      "maserati"
    ],
    "luxury": [
      "bmw",
      "mercedes-benz",
      "audi",
      "porsche",
      "jaguar",
      "land rover",
      "lexus",
      "cadillac",
      "lincoln",
      "genesis",
      "infiniti",
      "acura",
      "volvo",
      "alfa romeo",
      "polestar",
      "rivian",
      "lucid"
    ],
    "mainstream_plus": [
      "tesla",
      "buick",
      "mini",
      "subaru",
      "mazda",
      "volkswagen",
      "jeep",
      "ram"
    ],
    "mainstream": []
  },
  "retained_value": {
    "0": 1.0,
    "1": 0.85,
    "2": 0.78,
    "3": 0.72,
    "4": 0.66,
    "5": 0.61,
    "6": 0.555,
    "7": 0.505,
    "8": 0.46,
    "9": 0.42,
    "10": 0.38,
    "11": 0.355,
    "12": 0.32,
    "13": 0.3,
    "14": 0.275,
    "15": 0.25,
    "18": 0.21,
    "20": 0.18,
    "25": 0.15,
    "35": 0.13
  },
  "retained_value_floor_usd": 1400,
  "ev_retention_penalty": {
    "_note": "Electric vehicles older than three model years depreciate faster than the fleet average — battery-warranty runout and rapid model turnover. Multiplier applied to the retained-value curve.",
    "3": 0.9,
    "5": 0.8,
    "8": 0.72
  },
  "insurance_annual_usd": {
    "economy": [
      1450,
      2050
    ],
    "compact": [
      1550,
      2200
    ],
    "midsize": [
      1700,
      2400
    ],
    "fullsize": [
      1850,
      2650
    ],
    "compact_suv": [
      1650,
      2300
    ],
    "midsize_suv": [
      1800,
      2550
    ],
    "fullsize_suv": [
      2000,
      2850
    ],
    "pickup": [
      1900,
      2700
    ],
    "minivan": [
      1700,
      2350
    ],
    "sports": [
      2600,
      4200
    ],
    "luxury_compact": [
      2100,
      3000
    ],
    "luxury_midsize": [
      2400,
      3500
    ],
    "luxury_large": [
      3000,
      4600
    ],
    "exotic": [
      5000,
      12000
    ],
    "sports_luxury": [
      3200,
      5200
    ]
  },
  "insurance_age_relief": {
    "0": 1.0,
    "3": 0.93,
    "5": 0.86,
    "10": 0.72,
    "15": 0.62,
    "20": 0.55
  },
  "segment_keywords": {
    "pickup": [
      "f-150",
      "f-250",
      "f-350",
      "silverado",
      "sierra",
      "ram 1500",
      "ram 2500",
      "ram 3500",
      "tacoma",
      "tundra",
      "ranger",
      "colorado",
      "canyon",
      "frontier",
      "titan",
      "ridgeline",
      "maverick",
      "gladiator",
      "cybertruck",
      "lightning",
      "santa cruz",
      "avalanche",
      "dakota",
      "s-10",
      "sport trac"
    ],
    "minivan": [
      "odyssey",
      "sienna",
      "pacifica",
      "carnival",
      "sedona",
      "town and country",
      "grand caravan",
      "caravan",
      "quest",
      "transit connect",
      "metris"
    ],
    "fullsize_suv": [
      "suburban",
      "tahoe",
      "yukon",
      "expedition",
      "sequoia",
      "armada",
      "escalade",
      "navigator",
      "wagoneer",
      "land cruiser",
      "qx80",
      "lx 570",
      "lx 600",
      "durango",
      "traverse",
      "telluride",
      "palisade",
      "grand wagoneer",
      "grand wagoneer",
      "expedition max",
      "suburban 1500"
    ],
    "midsize_suv": [
      "explorer",
      "highlander",
      "pilot",
      "4runner",
      "grand cherokee",
      "pathfinder",
      "atlas",
      "ascent",
      "passport",
      "murano",
      "edge",
      "blazer",
      "santa fe",
      "sorento",
      "cx-9",
      "cx-90",
      "outback",
      "bronco",
      "defender",
      "discovery",
      "xt6",
      "mdx",
      "rx",
      "x5",
      "q7",
      "gle",
      "model x",
      "wrangler",
      "outlander",
      "montero",
      "trailblazer ss",
      "xterra",
      "envision",
      "enclave",
      "acadia",
      "xt5",
      "rdx",
      "q5 sportback"
    ],
    "compact_suv": [
      "rav4",
      "cr-v",
      "escape",
      "equinox",
      "rogue",
      "cx-5",
      "cx-50",
      "cx-30",
      "tucson",
      "sportage",
      "forester",
      "crosstrek",
      "compass",
      "renegade",
      "cherokee",
      "hr-v",
      "kona",
      "seltos",
      "trax",
      "trailblazer",
      "venue",
      "soul",
      "ecosport",
      "bronco sport",
      "corolla cross",
      "model y",
      "ioniq 5",
      "ev6",
      "mach-e",
      "id.4",
      "eqb",
      "x1",
      "x3",
      "q3",
      "q5",
      "glc",
      "gla",
      "nx",
      "ux",
      "xc40",
      "xc60",
      "macan",
      "cayenne",
      "evoque",
      "velar",
      "outlander sport",
      "eclipse cross",
      "rav4 prime",
      "niro",
      "corolla cross",
      "c-hr",
      "qx50"
    ],
    "sports": [
      "corvette",
      "mustang",
      "camaro",
      "challenger",
      "supra",
      "miata",
      "mx-5",
      "brz",
      "gr86",
      "frs",
      "fr-s",
      "viper",
      "z06",
      "shelby",
      "hellcat",
      "type r",
      "sti",
      "wrx",
      "m2",
      "m3",
      "m4",
      "m5",
      "m8",
      "emira",
      "elise",
      "exige",
      "roadster"
    ],
    "fullsize": [
      "impala",
      "taurus",
      "avalon",
      "maxima",
      "charger",
      "300",
      "lacrosse",
      "azera",
      "cadenza",
      "chrysler 300",
      "crown victoria",
      "grand marquis",
      "town car"
    ],
    "midsize": [
      "camry",
      "accord",
      "altima",
      "fusion",
      "malibu",
      "sonata",
      "optima",
      "k5",
      "legacy",
      "mazda6",
      "passat",
      "arteon",
      "stinger",
      "es",
      "ts",
      "model 3",
      "model s",
      "regal",
      "tlx",
      "q50",
      "c-class",
      "3 series",
      "a4",
      "a5",
      "a6",
      "e-class",
      "5 series"
    ],
    "compact": [
      "corolla",
      "civic",
      "elantra",
      "sentra",
      "forte",
      "jetta",
      "golf",
      "focus",
      "cruze",
      "impreza",
      "mazda3",
      "veloster",
      "prius",
      "insight",
      "ioniq",
      "leaf",
      "bolt",
      "sonic",
      "dart",
      "lancer",
      "matrix",
      "cobalt",
      "mirage g4",
      "lancer",
      "forte5",
      "golf gti"
    ],
    "economy": [
      "yaris",
      "fit",
      "rio",
      "accent",
      "versa",
      "spark",
      "mirage",
      "fiesta",
      "aveo",
      "metro",
      "smart",
      "500",
      "picanto",
      "swift",
      "sonic ls"
    ],
    "sports_luxury": [
      "911",
      "gt3",
      "gt2",
      "turbo s",
      "cayman",
      "boxster",
      "gt-r",
      "amg gt",
      "f-type",
      "nsx",
      "r8",
      "huracan",
      "m8",
      "emira",
      "vantage",
      "corvette z06",
      "supra"
    ]
  },
  "segment_fallback_by_mpg": {
    "_note": "Where no keyword matches, EPA combined economy is the size proxy: bigger cars drink more. Thresholds in MPG (combined).",
    "40": "economy",
    "32": "compact",
    "26": "midsize",
    "21": "midsize_suv",
    "0": "fullsize_suv"
  },
  "luxury_map": {
    "_note": "How a mainstream segment is re-read when the brand tier is luxury or exotic.",
    "economy": "luxury_compact",
    "compact": "luxury_compact",
    "midsize": "luxury_midsize",
    "fullsize": "luxury_large",
    "compact_suv": "luxury_compact",
    "midsize_suv": "luxury_midsize",
    "fullsize_suv": "luxury_large",
    "pickup": "luxury_large",
    "minivan": "luxury_midsize",
    "sports": "sports_luxury"
  },
  "ev_price_premium": {
    "_note": "Battery-electric versions carried a transaction-price premium over the fleet average that has narrowed year by year. Multiplier on the segment price.",
    "2012": 1.45,
    "2016": 1.35,
    "2019": 1.28,
    "2022": 1.2,
    "2024": 1.12,
    "2026": 1.06
  },
  "segment_retention": {
    "_note": "Multiplier on the fleet retained-value curve. Trucks, body-on-frame SUVs and sports cars hold value; large luxury sedans do not.",
    "pickup": 1.18,
    "fullsize_suv": 1.1,
    "midsize_suv": 1.05,
    "compact_suv": 1.03,
    "sports": 1.35,
    "sports_luxury": 1.5,
    "exotic": 1.55,
    "economy": 1.0,
    "compact": 1.0,
    "midsize": 0.98,
    "fullsize": 0.88,
    "minivan": 0.95,
    "luxury_compact": 0.9,
    "luxury_midsize": 0.85,
    "luxury_large": 0.72
  },
  "retained_value_ceiling": 0.95,
  "used_market_index": 1.08
}